tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84603978754157954952024-02-20T14:18:27.539+00:00Virtual LightAngus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-50118050361650592982008-03-17T15:41:00.003+00:002008-03-17T15:46:16.658+00:00Bear Sterns - The shit hits the fanThree articles from today's UK papers provide a good insight into the catastrophic mess we've been led into be greedy bankers and idiot/self-aggrandising politicians and clueless central bankers:<br /><br />1. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Daily Telegraph) - Foreign investors veto Fed rescue.<br /><br />How foreigners have stopped buying US Treasury bonds.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/17/ccview117.xml">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/17/ccview117.xml</a><br /><br />2. Larry Elliott (The Guardian) - America was conned - who will pay?<br /><br />How Wall Street types should be hung from the nearest lamp post!<br /><br /><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/17/economics.useconomy">http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/17/economics.useconomy</a><br /><br />3. Iain Martin (Daily Telegraph) on the political fallout below.<br /><br />I think his three points at the end hit the nail on the head.<br /><br />Credit crisis: the political fall out<br />Posted by Iain Martin on 17 Mar 2008 at 12:17<br /><br />This is one of those moments when our leaders can only look on, open mouthed and with fingers crossed, at the spectacle of mighty markets on the move. The second stage of the credit crunch is being played out, with emergency rate cuts from the Fed, a knock down sale of the fifth largest bank on Wall Street and tumbling share prices. Traders can only sit and watch as markets plummet<br /><br />On this side of the Atlantic it is starting to dawn on those who thought this would have no impact in the 'real economy' that they were mistaken. The rising cost of mortgages is about to hit millions of Britons as the era of easy money unwinds. Last week's budget now seems to belong to another world.<br /><br />On the crisis Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is invaluable, even more so than usual today. If you haven't read his take, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/17/ccview117.xml">here it is</a>.<br /><br />And <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/17/economics.useconomy">Larry Elliott in the Guardian</a> produces a blistering column saying Americans were conned by Wall Street and will want those bankers and institutions who profited from a bubble to pay.<br /><br />We have become used to living with certain so-called truths about politics and economics. Barring a miracle the world will look quite different very soon, so here are a few widely held assumptions about to be upended as the global economic climate changes.<br /><br />1) Alan Greenspan was/is a genius worthy of courting by world leaders, such as Gordon Brown. "You don't solve the problems of a collapsing bubble by blowing up another, which is what Greeenspan did after the dotcom fiasco - the most irresponsible behaviour of any central banker in living memory," says Larry Elliott. This will become a prevailing view amongst policy makers and analysts.<br /><br />2) George Bush's presidency couldn't get any worse. Oh yes it could. He was a disaster mainly abroad? Wrong, he was a disaster domestically too.<br /><br />3) Gordon Brown was a prudent custodian of our nation's finances.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-51621861642698994042007-10-10T22:23:00.000+01:002007-10-10T22:24:51.006+01:00UK Election petition<p>If you want to sign up for the election petition that Gordon Brown mentioned in PMQs today, it's at:</p> <p><a href="http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Election-year/"><strong>http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Election-year/</strong></a><br /> </p> <p>It now has rather more than the 26 signatures that he mocked!</p>Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-26146689961110194112007-10-10T16:21:00.000+01:002007-10-10T16:29:17.742+01:00Canada rethinks foreign takeoversI saw this article on the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7037197.stm">BBC website</a> today. The Canadian government is to subject foreign takeovers of domestic companies to a "national security test" to protect Canada's national interest. A rash of recent takeovers - to get hold of Canada's natural resources - and concerns over the potential for market distortion by state-owned foreign enterprises were behind the move.<br /><br />As Canada's Industry Minister said - Canada is open for business but it is not for sale. British government please take note.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-4278654809894788632007-09-26T16:02:00.000+01:002007-09-26T16:04:10.509+01:00Hill-Wood says "We do not want Usmanov here"Well, I think that pretty much sums it up. Read the Guardian article <a href="http://football.guardian.co.uk/News_Story/0,,2177271,00.html" target="blank">here</a>.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-74770280000823662612007-09-26T15:07:00.000+01:002007-09-26T15:54:49.700+01:00More on UsmanovThe murk deepens on Mr Usmanov - the Russian/Uzbeki who is trying to get his hands on Arsenal football club.<br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Murray" target="blank">Craig Murray</a>, Britain's former ambassador to Uzbekistan, has accused Mr Usmanov of various crimes (in a most un-ambassadorial way) and of having acquired his fortune in dubious circumstances. Details can be found by typing "Craig Murray censored" to bring up numerous sites that have mirrored the original blog by Craig Murray.<br /><br />In response Mr Usmanov had his lawyers lean on Fasthosts, the UK company hosting the servers running Craig Murray's website, and they promptly shut down the servers. This caused collateral damage to a number of other entirely unrelated websites including that of Boris Johnson MP and would-be London major. The story has become a cause celebre in the blogosphere and is now beginning to feed into the mainstream media:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2508108.ece" target="blank">The Times</a><br /><br /><a href="http://media.guardian.co.uk/newmedia/story/0,,2174406,00.html" target="blank">The Guardian</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/sports/blogosphere+mugging+for+usmanov/831347" target="blank">Channel 4 News</a><br /><br /><a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ukcorrespondents/andrewmckie/sept07/freedom_of_speech.htm" target="blank">Daily Telegraph Online here</a> and <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/brassneck/sept07/british_blogs_versus_russian_mogul.htm" target="blank">another here</a><br /><br />Let's hope that this scares Usmanov away. David Dein must be wondering what on earth he has done (one would hope!).Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-37232118358678513852007-09-24T15:20:00.000+01:002008-12-09T10:59:52.572+00:00Arsenal - Financial results<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje_dVnUVdTJmIwlBiRXqCm3na7oH1u1XxAMG-Ku7n1x3lWexc9yGNuZJOP7_hmUHqX1I3GCKKOOoa7lb4pca-wYMEsAzmpytbg_-squSPft7VMxz9yrYkzVT5pCVHFVosPsU8IcRVFFHk/s1600-h/Arsenal.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje_dVnUVdTJmIwlBiRXqCm3na7oH1u1XxAMG-Ku7n1x3lWexc9yGNuZJOP7_hmUHqX1I3GCKKOOoa7lb4pca-wYMEsAzmpytbg_-squSPft7VMxz9yrYkzVT5pCVHFVosPsU8IcRVFFHk/s320/Arsenal.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113788051221238482" border="0" /></a><br />Arsenal Holdings Plc, the owners of Arsenal Football Club released their results today. A detailed press release can be found <a href="http://www.arsenal.com/userincludes/docs/results24092007.pdf" target="blank">here</a>.<br /><br />Highlights are:<br /><br /><ul><li>Turnover increased to £200.8m - the highest of any English football club.</li><li>Operating profits (before player trading and depreciation) was £51.2m - up from £13.7m.</li><li>Arsenal generating over £3m revenue per game at the Emirates - double that of Highbury.<br /></li><li>Arsenal sitting on £73.9m in cash.</li></ul>The following passage in the release addresses the recent stakes acquired by Kronke and Usmanov and I wholeheartedly support the board's view and their leadership of the club over the last few years:<br /><br />"<span style="font-style: italic;">Such is the appeal of the Arsenal brand that we now have two new major shareholders.</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Their arrival has, unfortunately, brought some degree of speculation about the future of the</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Club.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;">I think it worthwhile, therefore, to once again lay out our philosophy as a Board as to the</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">guiding principles which underpin our management of the Club. Firstly, I would like to</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">emphasise our dual role both as fans and custodians of the Club, but to note that we never</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">allow our support of the Club as fans to put at risk the long term health of Arsenal Football</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Club. We believe in being bold in the development of the Club and in taking managed risks;</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">this is best evidenced by the development of Emirates Stadium. At the same time we</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">remain committed to the principle of developing the long-term stability of the Club through</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">maintaining a business that pays its own way. This financial prudence has been a hallmark</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">of the way in which the Club has been run over many years and has sown the seeds of the</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">success we enjoy today. We believe it is important to continue this philosophy so that future</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">generations of Arsenal shareholders and supporters can continue to enjoy the success of</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">the Club long into the future.</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">The year saw the departure of vice chairman, David Dein and, once again, I would like to</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">express our thanks to him for his many years of service.</span>"Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-56957030754121083472007-09-22T17:21:00.000+01:002007-09-22T17:29:14.229+01:00Gold on the rise?The price of gold has risen strongly this week off the back of the US Federal Reserve's half point interest rate cut to reach 27 year highs. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has produced another interesting piece in the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=BQ4EUJGQN0BTHQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/22/cngold122.xml" target="blank">Daily Telegraph</a> and quotes analysts who say that there is clear blue sky above the current price right up to the all time high at US$850.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-62741218933498701292007-09-22T16:43:00.000+01:002007-09-22T17:15:41.673+01:00Fears of Dollar collapseThe Saudi government has refused to cut interest rates in line with the US Fed for the first time reports the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=BQ4EUJGQN0BTHQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/19/bcnsaudi119.xml">Daily Telegraph</a>. This could signal a break with the US Dollar currency peg setting the scene for a stampede out of the dollar in the Middle East. The Saudis have US$800bn in their future generation fund and the entire region has $3,500bn under management.<br /><br />The US dollar currency peg is in danger of destabilising the Saudi economy through the inflationary threat of lower interest rates and a weaker currency. The Saudi central bank said it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country.<br /><br />The article notes that there is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries. This could leave America starved of the foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-78310580003677965212007-09-22T16:29:00.000+01:002007-09-22T16:42:49.470+01:00Credit crunch hits plans for London's tallest skyscraperThe credit crunch has another potential victim in CLS, the developers of the Shard at London Bridge Station in London, which is planned to be the UK's tallest building. Construction was due to start in early September but the problems in the credit markets mean that the finances still haven't been agreed.<br /><br />Story <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2007/09/17/bcnshard117.xml" target="blank">here</a>.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-41326813220865437422007-09-22T14:40:00.000+01:002008-12-09T10:59:52.720+00:00Usmanov and AbramovitchIn a week when the most successful manager in Chelsea's history is shown the door by his Russian boss, against the wishes of fans and players, Arsenal find themselves facing the spectre of Russian ownership too. I think I hardly need bother spelling out the dangers that being a billionaire's plaything entails as it has plainly been spelt out this week, so let's all hope that the current Arsenal board keep their nerve and can stop Usmanov gaining a blocking vote at the club. It is very frustrating to see the efforts and sacrifices of the last three years being threatened by David Dein and his latest chum. <br /><br />Dein seems to have really lost the plot in the last few months - we have won the league regularly under Wenger without spending stupid money and are currently top of the league playing great football with a young, improving and exciting squad. Apparently that's not good enough and we need to go down the Abramovitch route and bring in the star names. As Chelsea have found, that isn't necessarily the route to success or good football or large crowds. Have Shevchenko, Ballack and Cashley gone to Chelsea to play great football and to bring success to the club or to feather their nests and build up their pension plans? Who would you rather have in your side Ballack or Fabregas? <br /><br />Arsenal are absolutely on the right track at the moment and the next set of financial results are supposed to be very good. The current board deserves a great deal of credit for their foresight and for being prepared to sacrifice short term success for long term success. As an Arsenal fan who can remember the relatively barren period through the seventies and eighties until George Graham arrived, I appreciate the need need to build for long term success rather than being one or two season wonders. Our new stadium and the fans filling it every game mean that there is now the strong financial base necessary to keep the club in the frame for the foreseeable future. We don't need a sugar daddy to be successful and unsettle the fundamentals of the club. Or to interfere with a manager who is very successfully managing the team.<br /><br />Would you want this man running your club?<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHUckMdWKwe0MihA78VrOvvAdfqV-01j4SD0DjO9FgshhITIbnN3Lm88hlQw62EK3z-SCXalTnnv0sHgsyibdz2-TpOT6F4SRk6rG7EI-M0Wf1oBkS7Ea0HINR-XmTbrFkxwv5qZS6TJo/s1600-h/_44123047_usmanov203.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHUckMdWKwe0MihA78VrOvvAdfqV-01j4SD0DjO9FgshhITIbnN3Lm88hlQw62EK3z-SCXalTnnv0sHgsyibdz2-TpOT6F4SRk6rG7EI-M0Wf1oBkS7Ea0HINR-XmTbrFkxwv5qZS6TJo/s320/_44123047_usmanov203.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113026562109592242" border="0" /></a>Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-44713371277939786772007-09-22T14:12:00.001+01:002008-12-09T10:59:53.906+00:00Middlesex v Leicester -Southgate CCFollowing on from the late evening finish at Lord's on the evening of Monday 10th September, we had an early start for the 4 day game against Leicestershire on the Tuesday morning. Middlesex won the toss and chose to bat - fairly abysmally as it turned out. Apart from an excellent 74 from Ed Joyce and a decent 35 from the wicketkeeper Ben Scott it was pretty woeful and Middlesex were knocked over for 176 before tea on the first day! Critically, that meant no batting points and even if we won the game, Nottinghamshire would only require a single point from their game against Somerset to take the second, and last, promotion place (which they duly achieved).<br /><br />I won't gripe too much as it was a lovely sunny, warm late English summer's day - the sort of day that has been in very short supply this year - and the Walker ground in Southgate was lovely. All in all, two days away from work that were well worthwhile. Here's hoping that Middlesex do better next year and that I get a chance to see more games. Roll on April!<br /><br />Can you get a much more English view than this?<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiXMMk1wNjRpTBxki0Ez2bjp1FQCK77PSww_mj0Y8R2uhOnKTv0GNtiCl7fZ91AxWZklhTcagh0Rz_YBHoT_5TQ9QCd3qPb_6lTQbMaSCBTOwneAmrkyUx8_vZybzQpmoOqK6RlnMI3Cw/s1600-h/SouthgateCC4.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiXMMk1wNjRpTBxki0Ez2bjp1FQCK77PSww_mj0Y8R2uhOnKTv0GNtiCl7fZ91AxWZklhTcagh0Rz_YBHoT_5TQ9QCd3qPb_6lTQbMaSCBTOwneAmrkyUx8_vZybzQpmoOqK6RlnMI3Cw/s320/SouthgateCC4.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113016361562264226" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQInEpBaIMFx9zJfVMsTuVVeTAGvib1qNRCPFDrbgSWQ3svmHNLDZsOHwJmRzVsKNGcSxR4VLT5eH57D0kB61eX3hmso4Lzm2GJ8WSqjfopWgpnawfUYYw3Osriu8Iy-oVgpy8JxAd8c/s1600-h/SouthgateCC3.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQInEpBaIMFx9zJfVMsTuVVeTAGvib1qNRCPFDrbgSWQ3svmHNLDZsOHwJmRzVsKNGcSxR4VLT5eH57D0kB61eX3hmso4Lzm2GJ8WSqjfopWgpnawfUYYw3Osriu8Iy-oVgpy8JxAd8c/s320/SouthgateCC3.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113016206943441554" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi48AK7Jd4qRIWI1-JIeY0mLvPB4Omj6s96QcGiVsywaacmYWGIpN5Ria9qZhDPZU1VeicVYxCykBOtJz0JpycpFmHyLAmahNHTy_eYYVjg-_F3gcyo8n99R1_j2WOIVKHhuTSi6fSJ0iU/s1600-h/SouthgateCC2.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi48AK7Jd4qRIWI1-JIeY0mLvPB4Omj6s96QcGiVsywaacmYWGIpN5Ria9qZhDPZU1VeicVYxCykBOtJz0JpycpFmHyLAmahNHTy_eYYVjg-_F3gcyo8n99R1_j2WOIVKHhuTSi6fSJ0iU/s320/SouthgateCC2.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113016048029651586" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikzIbvjxfhhAQkaZQjxO-pMhqSeRtoo-H5XhMjLaq2M-HJa1GZE8QKnlVLVzi4XydcYBWbXQxv9_v__Bhs8yOiTVQQbCEB7SMPUJtFShXxx8z9Vp9AG1hmFDb0zFXEjzWJ4udX-v4kCTs/s1600-h/SouthgateCC1.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikzIbvjxfhhAQkaZQjxO-pMhqSeRtoo-H5XhMjLaq2M-HJa1GZE8QKnlVLVzi4XydcYBWbXQxv9_v__Bhs8yOiTVQQbCEB7SMPUJtFShXxx8z9Vp9AG1hmFDb0zFXEjzWJ4udX-v4kCTs/s320/SouthgateCC1.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113015906295730802" border="0" /></a>Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-52943391205342556192007-09-22T13:37:00.000+01:002008-12-09T10:59:54.657+00:00First Day Night match at Lord's Cricket GroundI finally got to see some cricket this summer, parenting duties and lousy weather had pretty much scuppered all opportunities until the Derbyshire 40 over aside game on September 10th which was the first game played under floodlights at Lords.<br /><br />In the afternoon sun, Derbyshire got off to a flying start with over 100 on the board in the first 20 overs for the loss of one wicket. As the light began to drop to the horizon, they lost wickets and the run rate faded and they only managed to post 196-9.<br /><br />Under the floodlights, Ed Joyce played an aggressive and entertaining innings of 68 and with help from Andrew Strauss (43) Middlesex strolled home to win and set themselves up for 3 place in Division 2 and a knock out match against Northamptonshire for promotion to Division 1.<br /><br />These pictures were taken on my new mobile and I hadn't read the instructions at that point, so they aren't that good! The view is from the MCCC stand next to the pavilion.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi-ZdDWc3WIbOFic6Wi0w904zZ2YAI49wQiAwOH2r3EGFLBEscVWz5plQOE7Vx6uu-4A9C9HpmQRYMST1zhxJdip9Xs1iMr4A0jGnflNF8LH2Fu65iZbYAJ21_5cP2uJN4nf0rCtlqrco/s1600-h/DSC00008.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi-ZdDWc3WIbOFic6Wi0w904zZ2YAI49wQiAwOH2r3EGFLBEscVWz5plQOE7Vx6uu-4A9C9HpmQRYMST1zhxJdip9Xs1iMr4A0jGnflNF8LH2Fu65iZbYAJ21_5cP2uJN4nf0rCtlqrco/s320/DSC00008.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113008098045186658" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhspuVSbJpZ59O4qayC-ezs8O4Jdg6ol055eTl_GITntQpVGWCXHMZFaMXAxZepNJH9IwjiTeuTx4Pd2NXZkr2H95QinX_2Rfh04nxeU3eLPeawf_A6chvhfw1PSnmahRnK6F1J946nekk/s1600-h/DSC00009.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhspuVSbJpZ59O4qayC-ezs8O4Jdg6ol055eTl_GITntQpVGWCXHMZFaMXAxZepNJH9IwjiTeuTx4Pd2NXZkr2H95QinX_2Rfh04nxeU3eLPeawf_A6chvhfw1PSnmahRnK6F1J946nekk/s320/DSC00009.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5113007084432904754" border="0" /></a>Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-55862451707737881392007-08-10T14:55:00.000+01:002007-08-10T15:00:03.908+01:00Petition for EU ReferendumThe Daily Telegraph are running a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=SXSKHTU2ACX5FQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?grid=F18&petition=europe&view=PETITION&xml=/news/2007/06/25/view25a.xml&_requestid=545989#form" target="blank">petition</a> for a UK referendum on the proposed EU (non-) constitution. As of 3pm Friday 10th August they have about 42,500 signatories.<br /><br />If you think there should be a referendum, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=SXSKHTU2ACX5FQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?grid=F18&petition=europe&view=PETITION&xml=/news/2007/06/25/view25a.xml&_requestid=545989#form" target="blank">sign up here</a>.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-77390028999973674112007-08-02T16:42:00.000+01:002007-08-02T17:41:13.387+01:00MyFootballClub reaches target membershipGood news! <a href="http://myfootballclub.co.uk/" target="blank">MyFootballClub.co.uk</a> has reached its target of 50,000 people signing up and is now beginning the process of looking for a team to buy. According to the website, they are in discussions with four clubs.<br /><br />Sign up <a href="http://members.myfootballclub.co.uk/register" target="blank">here</a>.<br /><br />Check out the story on the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/6914775.stm" target="blank">BBC website</a>.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-31690241324136200142007-07-25T11:23:00.000+01:002007-07-25T12:05:37.819+01:00Gold & the EuroAnother <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambrosevanspritchard/july07/eurocrisisgold.htm" target="blank">interesting article</a> in the Daily Telegraph by Andrew Evans-Pritchard.<br /><br />In summary:<br /><br /><ul><li>Gold has been moving with risk appetite and speculative trading and correlated with global liquidity.</li><li>He thinks that this may have begun to change in recent weeks, though too soon to tell.</li><li>He speculates that if global markets crash, then gold will initially fall with them and then decouple and rise strongly.</li><li>Euro not strong enough fundamentally to replace US Dollar.</li><li>In his scenario Gold, Swiss Franc and Yen will rise.</li></ul>Andrew speculates that this could play out in 2008. <br /><br />I think September and October could be "interesting" months this year, especially after yesterday's <a href="http://about.countrywide.com/PressRelease/PressRelease.aspx?rid=1029766&ir=yes" target="blank">profits warning from Countrywide Financial</a> and the news that 23.71% of its sub prime loans were delinquent and 4.56% of its prime lending was in arrears. It doesn't see the US housing market improving until 2009.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-92222269586806646552007-07-23T16:12:00.000+01:002007-07-23T16:48:52.250+01:00Barclays , ABN Amo and ChinaThe news that Barclays has turbocharged its bid for ABN Amro with an investment of £10 billion from the Chinese and Singaporean governments should send a warning sign to employees, governments and regulators in the West. Robert Peston in his <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2007/07/china_shops_in_uk.html" target="blank">blog</a> brings together the issues very well.<br /><br />My view is this. If the Chinese government was just taking a stake, looking for a higher return than on US T bonds, then fine. But we shouldn't be naive; this is lining Barclays up for a takeover. And let's be clear this would not a takeover by a commercial bank with an interest in employees, customers and other stakeholders. This would be a takeover by an arm of the unelected, undemocratic, communist government of China. That, in my view and the view of many others, is unacceptable.<br /><br />And don't forget, the reason that foreign banks only have stakes in Chinese banks and not outright control, and that applies pretty much across the board in China, is that the state doesn't want foreign ownership of Chinese business. They want to build their own giants and use them to take over our companies and take our technology and jobs.<br /><br />And while I fully accept that the Chinese people have every right to a more prosperous future, we should be careful that it doesn't damage ours.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-37406483401978601032007-07-17T13:33:00.000+01:002008-12-09T10:59:54.925+00:00Homer visits Cerne Abbas (to play Hoopla?)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNepBMS80-NX7tfcqJ_Xab9krPyoWUfKhs5BeMXb0aHZgU7TA3l03i0mgbNvvNhW8Dobaj1Tl7EckaFawyoKvkeYrwjGtry2mSerqSElDs-r3h1v00x1a5M2xIdI4cSPKSAjXF4FHAMBw/s1600-h/_44001935_homergiant203pa.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNepBMS80-NX7tfcqJ_Xab9krPyoWUfKhs5BeMXb0aHZgU7TA3l03i0mgbNvvNhW8Dobaj1Tl7EckaFawyoKvkeYrwjGtry2mSerqSElDs-r3h1v00x1a5M2xIdI4cSPKSAjXF4FHAMBw/s320/_44001935_homergiant203pa.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088143406708473586" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />To promote the new Simpsons film, a giant Homer has been painted alongside the giant at Cerne Abbas (Dorset, UK). Alas, as it was painted with a water-based biodegradable paint it will no doubt already have been washed away by the incessant rain.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-61466414786729662432007-07-10T14:57:00.000+01:002007-07-10T15:00:40.278+01:00Baby friendly holidaysThis looks like a good holiday website for anyone with babies or toddlers. <a href="http://www.babyfriendlyboltholes.co.uk/" target="blank">Baby Friendly Boltholes</a>.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-21555566446274380572007-07-06T16:33:00.000+01:002007-07-06T22:59:11.127+01:00Credit crunch will 'shred investment portfolios to ribbons'<span style="font-size:100%;">Check out this <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/02/ccview102.xml" target="blank">article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard</a> in the Daily Telegraph and Robert Peston's latest blog <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2007/07/are_markets_hurricaneproof_1.html" target="blank">'Are markets hurricane-proof'</a> on the BBC.<br /><br />With the near-collapse of the two Bear Sterns hedge funds recently and the major downturn in the sub-prime lending market the spotlight is on the increasingly esoteric instruments being used by banks to 'gamble'. The two articles make some interesting points:<br /><br /></span><ul><li><span style="font-size:100%;">The underlying debt assets may be mis-priced as the quality of the loans made by the banks may not be all it's cracked up to be - as they are bundling them up and selling the risk on and not holding it themselves.</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-size:100%;">If the market starts to topple, there may be no buyers for these instruments and prices would collapse leading to a credit crunch.</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-size:100%;">Investors portfolios would "be shredded".</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-size:100%;">"This is a 100pc-proof government-created monster. Bureaucrats (yes, Alan Greenspan) have distorted market signals, leading to the warped behaviour we see all around us."</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-size:100%;">The Bank of International Settlements notes that the Fed's strategy leads to serial bubbles, creates an addiction to easy money, and transfers wealth from savers to debtors, "sowing the seeds for more serious problems further ahead".</span></li></ul><span style="font-size:100%;">We already know what the Fed's response to any impending collapse will be. The Fed chairman 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke has already said he would drop cash from helicopters if necessary. When the head of the world's most important central bank says that, you know you're in trouble.</span>Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-67993658780643003092007-07-03T14:13:00.000+01:002007-07-03T20:15:57.238+01:00Private Equity and taxThe hot business topic of the moment seems to be Private Equity (PE). Robert Peston has regularly blogged on the subject on the BBC business website and today has covered the latest <a href="http://http//www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2007/07/zero_tax_for_saga_and_aa_1.html" target="blank">PE story</a>, that the AA and Saga have avoided paying any corporation taxes on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation (EBITDA) of £430m because they are so loaded up with debt that their liability for tax is reduced to zero.<br /><br />In his final comment, Robert writes:<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">"And you can dismiss the private-equity argument that the tax liability is merely transferred to those who lend to their companies. Some of these lenders pay tax in the UK, but in a globalised financial world most don’t."</span><br /><br />I think he's wrong on that specific point, as I'm sure the Inland Revenue would expect foreign banks to be paying UK taxes on profits made in the UK. But I think the more interesting issue is around the capital structures that PE use and why.<br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani-Miller_theorem" target="blank">Modigliani and Miller's theorem</a> forms the basis of thinking on capital structure and the two key propositions are that in the absence of taxes (and other factors - see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani-Miller_theorem" target="blank">article</a>) the value of a company is unaffected by its capital structure and that the cost of equity increases with the proportion of debt to compensate for the increased risk. That second point is of note to the employees of companies taken private as there employment becomes riskier - something for which they are rarely compensated.<br /><br />Of course, the provisos in the theory don't apply in practice, so financial engineering does matter. In a recent blog - <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/2007/06/private_equity_some_thoughts.html" target="blank">Private equity: Some thoughts</a> - Evan Davis, the BBC's Economics editor nails the issue when he talks about the asymmetry of risks in PE deals where the leverage (taking large loans to finance deals versus relatively small amounts of the investors capital) means huge potential returns to the upside but limited potential losses to the downside. The other issue Evan mentions is that a provision in the tax system to encourage entrepreneurship, the low capital gains tax rate on assets held for more than two years, means that the PE partners pay almost no tax (about 5%) when they do sell up as it counts as a capital gain rather than income.<br /><br />It's easy to lose sight of the fact that wealth creation isn't a zero sum game and that raises the question of what benefit there is to the UK economy from the PE industry. The direct benefit seems limited, as they pay little in taxes, and it's a small industry, so I doubt if it employs many people (10,000?) who would be gainfully employed regardless. Where they do provide a valuable service is when they genuinely turnaround struggling companies and the role they have in keeping the managers of listed companies 'honest' (when underperformance = takeover).<br /><br />The downsides seem starker, particularly if you are an employee in many of the companies taken private (Saga being a notable exception in having widespread equity participation amongst its employees). As mentioned above, the capital gains tax rates are low to encourage entrepreneurism but as the gains from financially engineering existing companies and then spinning them back onto the market have been so great, the funds available to startups, as Evan Davis notes, have significantly reduced. Losing that stream of new companies is probably of greater significance to the long term health of the economy than anything else in this debate.<br /><br />So, does it matter that people earning tens or hundreds of millions if not billions of pounds should pay either no tax or lower tax rates than the company cleaners? If these people contribute so little to the country do their wealth generating efforts count for anything (especially if it is diverting resources from more useful activities)? Are these people just taking up space in London and driving up house prices?<br /><br />I just don't know but I'm not convinced that they are a valuable sector that should be pandered to. The inequity that the sector highlights is unhealthy for society and people making this kind of money should be prepared to stump up their share to the society that allows them to prosper. If they aren't they can sod off to Monaco for all I care!Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-40921661968042990032007-06-28T15:20:00.000+01:002007-06-28T15:38:46.170+01:00(Oh my God) The Spice Girls are back!Ladies and Gentlemen, I present:<br /><br />Silicone<br />Plastic<br />Fat<br />Sad<br />and… Actually, still quite attractive.<br /><br />And let’s not forget the sixth Spice – Money, money, money or Dosh Spice.<br /><br />To top it off, the Spice Girls chose that other embarrassing relic of the 1990’s to announce the tour – The Millennium (O2) Dome.<br /><br />Are the 10-13 year olds of 1996 really nostalgic for the past? I would hope that they would now be too embarrassed! Or, is the band relying on the celebrity pulling power of Victoria Beckham to pull the crowds in?<br /><br />Fashion-wise, the band has moved on from platform shoes they could fall off of to tops they could fall out of. I guess that constitutes an improvement of sorts.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-63496776899164247562007-06-28T11:19:00.000+01:002007-06-28T11:36:33.831+01:00EU referendum campaignAs usual the leaders of the EU have shown their lack of respect for democracy and the European electorate by bringing the failed constitution back in a form that they say only needs to be ratified by national parliaments - unless you are lucky enough to live in Ireland or Denmark where constitutional changes have to go to referendum.<br /><br />There's an excellent piece by <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/25/do2506.xml" target="blank">Daniel Hannan in the Telegraph</a> that eloquently dissects the way that Brussels operates, why the British government doesn't want a referendum and why it is essential that this pseudo-constitution be put to the vote. The "escalator clause" allowing Brussels to extend its jurisdiction without further treaties is a huge concern as is the French amendment removing the commitment to free competition. The huge irony being that the free market is the only thing that the British people ever signed up for.<br /><br />There is a petition for a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=BLOGDETAIL&grid=F11&amp;amp;blog=yourview&xml=/news/2007/06/25/view25a.xml" target="blank">referendum here</a>.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-36171866454394180642007-06-26T15:38:00.001+01:002007-06-26T16:03:54.571+01:00Booms were made to go bustI thought this was a good article on <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/37414" target="blank">Yahoo Finance</a>. Judging by the response, which is pretty overwhelmingly negative, it's very much a contrarian position but I think the point that the global boom in assets is driven by a credit bubble is pretty inescapable. The question of course is if and when it will burst - or whether it will gradually deflate. We've seen some glimpses of what could happen , back in February, if it does burst - rapid currency fluctuations, crashing stock and commodities markets and general financial mayhem. And it should be noted that gold went down too, as holders sold it off to cover their losses in less liquid areas.<br /><br />The other side of the equation in this story, the huge current account surpluses of China and petro-countries, also appeared in the news today. The <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d25a3618-2342-11dc-9e7e-000b5df10621.html" target="blank">FT reports</a> that the German government is considering setting up an agency to vet acquisitions by state-controlled foreign funds along the lines of the US Committee on Foreign Investment. In my opinion, it is a very sound idea. These acquisitions need to be vetted in all Western countries to ensure that the interests of the acquirers are aligned with consumers and national policy. In particular, I would highlight energy policy and the acquisition of supply companies by energy exporting countries - an area where there is a clear conflict of interest.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-75925556837115759622007-06-23T15:43:00.000+01:002007-06-23T23:51:11.077+01:00Au Revoir Thierry Henry...Well the news that most Arsenal fans have been expecting has come - Thierry Henry has signed for Barcelona. He leaves the Premiership as a genuine legend of English football with an unsurpassed legacy of great goals. His pace, flair and partnerships with the likes of Bergkamp and Pires took Arsenal to heights that we may never see at the club again. But the time had come and £16m doesn't look too bad a deal for a striker about to reach 30, though I was hoping we'd get Eto'o in a swap. The only real silver lining seems to be that the deal was not supposed to be announced until next week as Arsenal arrange the signing of a replacement. But I'm never too hopeful in these matters as it seems to have been a while since we really bought well and have failed to replace the likes of Vierra and Pires in the last couple of seasons. Pires to my mind was the critical loss and the lack of goals from midfield has really hurt us. It's all very well pointing to the kids coming through but as someone once said - You don't win anything with kids.<br /><br />The rationale behind Henry's departure is apparently David Dein's leaving. And the current stalemate on the board threatens the departure of Arsene Wenger and that really would be a disaster for the club. An exodus of our talented young foreigners would then be likely just as they start to approach their prime. Kroenke's intervention in the club has bought nothing but trouble and threatens to undermine the club just as comes through its period of financial difficulties caused by the move to the Emirates. I heartily wish he would piss off and leave our club alone. Unfortunately these greedy, bloated egos don't give a stuff about the fans - we're just the cash cows to be milked!Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8460397875415795495.post-43031338523048124332007-06-22T12:32:00.000+01:002007-06-22T12:42:24.239+01:00Fancy owning a football club?Check out this site - <a href="http://www.myfootballclub.co.uk/" target="blank">My Football Club</a> - which is seeking to buy an English football club and run it as an Industrial and Providential Society.<br /><br />They are seeking 50,000 'owners' paying £35 each. On successfully buying the club, the owners will get an online vote on:<br /><br /><ul><li>team selection and formation</li><li>tactics/style of play</li><li>substitutions</li><li>buying players</li><li>allocating club funds</li></ul>This could be a real test of the theory of '<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_crowds" target="blank">The Wisdom of Crowds</a>'.<br /><br />I want to buy Barnet but I'm not sure if they are for sale.Angus Aldermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07177870262859666077noreply@blogger.com1